Only 66 days before Christmas and 73 days before another new year. It’s not so much the swiftness of Time that amazes us as how everything is constantly changing – people, situations and even places. Almost everything anyway. One thing that remains unchanged is the Philippines’ maritime industry. Today, 477 days after President Benigno Aquino III assumed office, what we predicted shortly after it became clear that Mr Aquino had won the 10th May 2010 election appears to be coming true: the maritime status quo will continue.

Here’s part of what we wrote in our blog post of 13th May 2010 entitled “New president, renewed maritime industry?“:

“…The labour export programme is certain to persist, way beyond Mr Aquino’s six-year term. Filipino migrant workers, seafarers included, continue to send home so much hard currency that it would be economic suicide for the new government to abandon the Marcos-era policy. Neither do we expect the country’s obsession with crewing to wane, although it has certainly contributed to the decline of shipowning, shipbuilding and marine manufacturing.”

“…Shipbuilding will remain in the hands of foreigners; the country won’t soon be manufacturing containers or cranes; container volumes in key international ports such as Subic and Batangas will still be paltry compared with throughputs in other Asian ports; and Filipinos will go on manning other nations’ fleets.”

Our forecast wasn’t totally pessimistic. We said back then that the maritime industry could see some improvements provided the President “will not only lead by example but actually remove the bad eggs in the maritime bureaucracy.” Well, the bad eggs are still there. Combine this with the fetish-like national preoccupation with manning, and you can almost be certain that things will stay pretty much the way they are. ~Barista Uno